The situation bitcoin in recent weeks is accompanied by a stall phase where the price fluctuates between two important values.
This can be considered a lateral phase, and we see it from the market volatility which remains low for the type.
Furthermore, the market is awaiting developments from the point of view of some projects such as the launch of Bakkt, which could change the scenario.
These news should be protagonists in September, here we should witness relevant market movements.
But let’s look at the bitcoin situation in detail by analyzing the market data.
Let's analyze the price
This phase has been going on for about 2 months starting from the last upside in June where it touched $ 13,000.00.
Now, looking closely, we will notice that the price has touched the $ 9,500.00 blue line, overturning several times, to then touch $ 12,000.00.
The situation on bitcoin should be clear, we are witnessing a lateral phase where the price fluctuates between these values.
In addition, looking at the volumes in detail, we will note that when the market rose, volumes accompanied the rise, and vice versa, when it corrected the volumes, they dropped.
This is a sign that the main trend is upward, and is also confirmed by the price.
Another value to consider is the 100-day and 200-day moving average.
In fact, if we look at figure 1, we will notice that the price is close to the 100-day moving average (the orange one).
If the price should cut it down with volumes and high volatility, we should expect a correction towards $ 7,500.00.
This has already happened in the past, its cut, either downward or upward net, has heralded the movement of the cutting direction.
Possible developments
Considering these technical analysis data, we can draw some considerations on the possible price movement.
Two possible scenarios could be created:
- A price rebound on the $ 9,500 area with a $ 11,000 target
- And a correction towards $ 7,500
Analyzing the first situation we can say that bitcoin could remain in the consolidation area between $ 9.500 and $ 13.000.
This would confirm the consolidation situation together with the index that measures volatility where it marks minimum values.
In this case an accumulation situation could arise, to then witness a start of a bull phase for the period up to the end of the year.
And this is also accompanied by the fact that in the coming months we will see important news releases for bitcoins.
Instead if there should be a downside break of $ 9,500 with high volumes and increased volatility, this could be a bearish signal.
This could bring the bitcoin price down to $ 7,500, where the market has previously stagnated for a long time.
This level would then be confirmed by the 200-day moving average (celestial line).
With this situation, the situation of both the bitcoin and Altcoin markets will change, in which they could still lose ground.
We just have to wait for possible market developments in the coming days and follow the news that is left every day.
Fundamental analysis
Instead, moving from technical analysis to fundamental analysis, we can have a different long-term framework.
1- Increase in mining power
Starting with the fact that mining power is increasing, it would suggest that there is a great expectation of the miners increasing the price of Bitcoin.
In fact, value has not only set the historical record but is increasing every day.
This is a clear signal that we are investing more and more in Bitcoin, also because we are approaching Halving.
If the price should fall or remain in the side it would not make sense to continue investing, it would lead to losses.
In addition, the fees that are paid to the miners are at their lowest since 2017, which would be a further waste of time investing in mining when you would earn little in Fee.
2- Increased daily transactions
The increase in daily transactions has risen sharply since the end of 2018 when the market has corrected a lot.
This is another sign that there is interest in using bitcoins in daily exchanges.
The value is increasing more and more, returning to the levels of the last All time high of $ 20,000, increasing the consideration of the use of this technology in everyday life.
In addition, the increase in the number of wallets makes use of this technology consider.
3- The bitcoin news
We can consider as fundamental analysis, the news that is published in reference to bitcoin.
One of these is undoubtedly that of Bakkt.
This news could be a boost to the bitcoin economy because it will bring liquidity from large institutional investors.
In addition, with him, he will have a new vision from public bodies, that this market should be taken into consideration.
To conclude
In conclusion having this data, we can get an idea of this market.
This technology is still growing, and not only is it looking for the ideal price.
Many steps are being taken, but the road is still long and tortuous.
Mud is still being thrown on this sector, which is partly formed by scam projects, but in part it is formed by large projects.
Many people still think of getting rich quickly, and that will make them disappear soon, others think it’s a scam.
All of these must stop and think carefully and think about what could really bring bitcoins to people regardless of the price.
